Economics

Demand for solar is surging around the world as high oil and gas prices drive an unprecedented acceleration in the global energy transition. The March data from the Chinese customs authority gives us one of the first clear signals of how the world is responding. The direction is unmistakable. Solar exports from China - a leading indicator for global solar adoption - surged in March, doubling to 68 GW. That's equivalent to the total installed solar capacity of Spain. And it's the regions most affected by the unfolding energy crisis that are seeing the sharpest increases in demand. The March data shows just how broad this surge is: ✅ 50 countries set all-time records for solar imports ✅ Exports to Africa rose 176% - in particular Nigeria +519%, Ethiopia +391% and Kenya +207% ✅ Exports to Asia doubled - in particular India +141%, Malaysia +384% and Lao PDR +108% Records were also set in other markets exposed to high fuel costs, including Japan, Australia and the EU. Another trend is emerging. Exports of solar cells and wafers have now overtaken exports of panels, as countries in Africa and Asia begin moving up the value chain, building their own solar manufacturing and assembly capabilities. We're witnessing how quickly countries respond to rising fossil fuel costs and risks – accelerating solar and electrification more broadly.

The latest reporting from the Financial Times highlights a point that energy analysts have been making for years: geopolitical shocks consistently strengthen the case for renewables, electrification and storage. Microsoft’s global vice-president for energy notes that oil and gas price spikes linked to the Middle East conflict reinforce the value of wind, solar and batteries in providing price stability. Once installed, renewables offer predictable cost profiles and reduce exposure to volatile global fuel markets. We saw this dynamic after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Europe accelerated solar deployment, heat pump uptake increased in several countries, and governments revisited questions of energy security through the lens of diversification and electrification. The underlying issue remains unchanged. Fossil fuels must continuously flow through complex global supply chains. When those flows are disrupted, prices spike and economies are exposed. Renewables, by contrast, are capital intensive upfront but deliver long term domestic supply and insulation from commodity shocks. There are short term risks. Inflation, higher interest rates and supply chain constraints can slow clean energy investment. Some governments may also respond by doubling down on gas infrastructure. The policy challenge is to avoid locking in further structural vulnerability. Energy security and climate policy are not competing objectives. In a world of recurrent geopolitical instability, they are increasingly aligned.

The European Parliament has officially passed Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) legislation that fundamentally shifts the responsibility for textile waste management to fashion brands and retailers – with far-reaching global implications. This new law requires all producers, including e-commerce platforms, to cover the full cost of collecting, sorting, and recycling textiles, regardless of whether they are based within or outside the EU. The financial burden of Europe's textile waste now falls squarely on the brands that create it. What are the critical business implications? UNIVERSAL SCOPE: The legislation applies to all producers selling in the EU market, including those of clothing, accessories, footwear, home textiles, and curtains. No company is exempt based on location. FAST FASHION PENALTY: Member states must specifically address ultra-fast and fast fashion practices when determining EPR financial contributions, creating cost penalties for unsustainable business models. GLOBAL SUPPLY CHAIN DISRUPTION: As the world's largest textile importer, the EU's new rules will ripple across global supply chains, particularly impacting exporters from Bangladesh, Vietnam, China, and India who supply much of Europe's fast fashion. TIMELINE PRESSURE: Officially adopted September 2025, this creates immediate operational and financial planning requirements. COMPETITIVE RESHAPING: Brands and retailers will inevitably pass increased costs down their supply chains, fundamentally altering supplier relationships and pricing structures globally. What are the implications for various stakeholders? For CEOs and board members: This represents more than regulatory compliance – it's a complete business model transformation. Companies must now integrate end-of-life costs into product pricing, rethink supplier partnerships, and accelerate circular design strategies. For sustainability and decarbonisation executives: This creates unprecedented opportunities for circular economy solutions, sustainable material innovation, and traceability system development across global supply chains. Link: https://lnkd.in/dTyHtHuD #sustainablefashion #circulareconomy #textilwaste #epr #fashionindustry #sustainability #supplychainmanagement #fastfashion #environmentalregulation #businessstrategy #decarbonisation #textilerecycling #fashionceos #boardgovernance #climateaction #wastemanagement #producerresponsibility #fashionsustainability #textileindustry #greenbusiness

Something VERY cool just happened in California and… it could be the future of energy.   On July 29, just as the sun was setting, California’s electric grid was reaching peak demand.   However, instead of ramping up fossil fuel resources, the California Independent System Operator (CAISO) and local utilities decided to lean on a network of thousands of home batteries.   More than 100,000 residential battery systems (made up primarily by Sunrun and Tesla customers) delivered about 535 megawatts of power to California’s grid right as demand peaked, visibly reducing net load (as shown in the graphic).   Now, this may not seem like a lot but 535 megawatts is enough to power more than half of the city of San Francisco and that can make all the difference when a grid is under stress.   This is what’s called a Virtual Power Plant or VPP. It’s a network of distributed energy resources that grid operators can call on in an emergency to provide greater resilience to our energy systems. Homeowners are compensated for the dispatch, grid operators are given another tool for reliability, and ratepayers are saved from instability. It’s a win-win-win.   Now, this was just a test to prepare for other need-based dispatches during heat waves in August and September. But it’ historic.   As homeowners add more solar and storage resources, the impact of these dispatch events will become even more profound and even more necessary. This was the second time this summer that VPPs have been dispatched in California and I expect to see even more as this technology improves.   Shout out to Sunrun, Tesla, and all companies who participated. Keep up the great work.

In Delhi, the temperature hit 42.1°C this year. But some people didn't have the luxury of going indoors because the street was their workplace. India’s 3 crore+ street vendors from fruit sellers to chaat walas spend over 12 hours a day under the open sky. They’re not just battling heat; they’re battling the vanishing shade. A recent study by Azim Premji University in Hyderabad reveals a disturbing trend: "As Indian cities grow vertically, their green cover shrinks." And the hardest hit? Women, migrants, and informal workers who depend on those trees for a livelihood. “When the tree was there, I sold 20 plates of Bhel. Now, I sit in the sun and barely manage 6.” -  a street vendor in Delhi. This isn't an isolated story. According to Greenpeace India & National Hawkers Federation (2024) survey: - 50% of street vendors in Delhi lost income during the summer months - 80% saw a dip in footfall due to extreme heat - ₹500–₹600 worth of goods go bad daily due to heat damage - 71% couldn’t afford medical care - Women vendors reported rising BP, menstrual irregularities, and sleep deprivation. And yet, despite Delhi hitting a record-breaking 50°C last year, heatwaves are still not recognized as a national disaster. Worse, street vendors are often left out of urban planning and climate resilience strategies. Green spaces are not aesthetic choices- they are economic lifelines. For many vendors, a tree is more than shade. It’s a signboard, a cooling system, and a guarantee of survival. And yet, the people who pollute the least are paying the highest price for climate change. If you’re in a position to influence policy, design public spaces, or fund local initiatives - pause and ask: Are we building cities that everyone can survive in?

Payments have evolved from paper and plastic to APIs and orchestration - giving rise to a new breed of players that simplify the complexity and connect the dots behind the scenes. Here's how we got here. 𝟭. 𝗜𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗽𝗿𝗲-𝟭𝟵𝟵𝟬𝘀 𝗲𝗿𝗮, banks owned the entire payments value chain -acquiring, processing, settlement. Merchant onboarding was complex, and domestic clearing systems ruled. 𝟮. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗶𝘀𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝗲-𝗰𝗼𝗺𝗺𝗲𝗿𝗰𝗲 in the late 1990s changed everything. Players like PayPal and Authorize made online payments possible, while banks began exiting the acquiring space or partnering with processors to keep up with demand. 𝟯. 𝗕𝗲𝘁𝘄𝗲𝗲𝗻 𝟮𝟬𝟬𝟬 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝟮𝟬𝟭𝟬, specialized gateways and regional wallets began to scale, offering merchants greater flexibility and control. The launch of SEPA in Europe marked a push toward payment harmonization, while non-bank players started building infrastructure that bypassed traditional acquiring models altogether. 𝟰. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗳𝘁 𝘁𝗼 𝗔𝗣𝗜-𝗱𝗿𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗻 𝗶𝗻𝗳𝗿𝗮𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 transformed payments from siloed systems into modular, developer-friendly tools. Merchant onboarding became faster, integrations simpler, and innovation more scalable. Open Banking regulations enabled direct access to bank data, while new credit models redefined consumer behavior. Payments evolved into a flexible, programmable layer of the digital economy. 𝟱. 𝗧𝗼𝗱𝗮𝘆, we’re in the age of seamless integration. Payments are embedded in everything - from ride-hailing apps to SuperApps. Real-time rails like SEPA Instant, UPI and PIX are live. CBDCs are in pilot. However, as payment ecosystems grow more fragmented - with new methods, regional schemes, compliance layers, and fraud risks -complexity has become a major bottleneck for merchants, fintechs, and even banks. Integrating multiple providers, maintaining uptime across systems, and ensuring regulatory compliance isn't just costly - it's unsustainable without the right foundation. This is where a new breed of infrastructure players like 𝗔𝗸𝘂𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗰𝗼 fit in - offering the tools to simplify complexity and still retain control. • 𝗪𝗵𝗶𝘁𝗲-𝗹𝗮𝗯𝗲𝗹 𝗽𝗮𝘆𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗴𝗮𝘁𝗲𝘄𝗮𝘆𝘀 let banks, PSPs, and fintechs launch their own branded platforms fast - without building from scratch. • 𝗣𝗮𝘆𝗺𝗲𝗻𝘁 𝗼𝗿𝗰𝗵𝗲𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 enables merchants to route transactions dynamically across multiple acquirers, reducing costs and failed payments while improving UX. • 𝗕𝗮𝗻𝗸𝘀 can embed API-driven acquiring services into their offerings without the burden of a full-scale tech overhaul. In a world where growth brings fragmentation, the real challenge isn’t enabling payments - it’s managing them. The advantage will lie with infrastructure that can unify complexity, adapt in real time, and scale across borders without adding friction. Opinions: my own, Graphic source: Akurateco Payment Hub Subscribe to my newsletter: https://lnkd.in/dkqhnxdg

Use this simple approach to master the Bond Market. Nominal bond yields can be thought of as the interaction between: 1️⃣ Growth expectations 2️⃣ Inflation expectations 3️⃣ Term premium 1. Growth expectations When it comes to economic growth we must consider two angles: structural and cyclical growth. Structural economic growth can be generated through more people joining the labor force (good demographics) and/or through a more productive use of labor and capital (strong productivity trends). The ability of an economy to generate structural growth is an important driver behind long-dated bond yields (strong structural growth = structurally higher long-dated yields and vice versa). Short-term economic cycles also matter for bond yields and particularly at the short-end. Cyclical growth trends are driven by the credit cycle, the fiscal stance, earnings growth, labor market trends and more - the healthier they are, the higher short-end bond yields can be pushed also as a result of a likely tightening from Central Banks that might grow worried about economic over-heating and inflationary pressures in such an environment. 2. Inflation expectations The second component driving nominal bond yields is inflation: but NOT TODAY'S inflation - instead we are referring to long-term inflation expectations. Central Banks might temporarily react to concentrated bursts of inflationary pressures by raising short-term interest rates but when it comes to long-dated bond yields investors will always pay close attention to inflation expectations. That's because consumers and borrowers will tend to make important decisions based on these rather than on volatile short-term trends in inflation. 3. Term premium An investor looking to get fixed income exposure can do that via buying 3-month T-Bills and rolling them each time they mature for the next 10 years. Alternatively, it can decide to purchase 10-year Treasuries today. What's the difference? Interest rate risk! Buying a 10-year bond today rather than rolling T-Bills for the next 10 years exposes investors to risks – term premium compensates for this risk. The lower the uncertainty about growth and inflation down the road, the lower the term premium and vice versa. 💡 The Main Takeaway 💡 If you want to make sense of bond yields, a useful approach to use is to think of them as the result of growth expectations, inflation expectations and term premium. P.S. If you liked this post you'll love my macro research. I share my macro analysis every day with the biggest institutional investors and hedge funds in the world. Get your FREE trial here👇🏼 https://lnkd.in/dyFFJp-z

The IEA called the Hormuz closure the worst energy crisis in history, worse than the 1970s oil shocks and worse than Ukraine. About 84% of the crude oil and 83% of the LNG passing through that strait goes to Asia, with China, India, Japan and South Korea accounting for 75% of the oil. When the strait closed in late February, those supply lines went with it. Carbon Brief tracked at least 60 countries announcing nearly 200 emergency measures in the weeks that followed. The Philippines declared a national emergency. Sri Lanka moved to a four-day working week. South Korea postponed coal plant decommissioning. Indonesia, Japan and India began spending billions on fuel subsidies just to keep people's lights on. But the countries that had already built domestic renewable capacity were in a structurally different position. Pakistan's rooftop solar boom, roughly 41 GW installed since 2023, had already insulated much of its grid from imported gas. India's solar growth actually offset its drop in fossil fuel generation in the first month after the closure, according to Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA). That capacity did not need a shipping lane to function. Now the response is accelerating everywhere. 🇮🇩 Indonesia published its roadmap to replace 5,200 diesel plants with solar and battery storage, with the IEEFA putting the cost gap plainly: diesel costs $0.29 to $0.65 per kWh while solar plus storage costs $0.08 to $0.20. 🇵🇭 The Philippines confirmed its seventh Green Energy Auction with mandatory battery storage. 🇨🇳 Chinese solar exports hit record levels in March, with Ember reporting that 50 countries set new records for Chinese panel imports that month. 🇰🇷 South Korea's energy minister called the crisis "a significant turning point" and committed to 100 GW of renewables by 2030. 🇹🇷 Turkey pledged $80 billion in renewables by 2035. 🇻🇳 Vietnam is phasing out coal from new infrastructure after 2030. 🇹🇭 Thailand is diversifying away from LNG toward domestic renewables. 🇸🇬 Singapore's energy experts called the crisis a "wake up call" to accelerate green energy imports. As CREA's lead analyst put it, global fossil fuel power generation actually fell in the first month after Hormuz, with the gap filled by solar and wind rather than coal. This is why the Wavemaker Impact portfolio is concentrated across South East Asia and India. Our companies are deploying solar, storage, efficient cooling and productive use equipment in the markets where the economics and the security logic now point in the same direction, selling into demand that the oil crisis made urgent. Renewable energy is no longer just the cheapest energy source. It is now the most secure and controllable energy system a country can build. Every kilowatt-hour you generate at home is one that no blockade, no war and no price shock can take away from you.

By 2053, Black wealth could fall to zero if current trends continue. This isn't just a number—it’s a stark reminder of systemic inequities and the urgency of collective action. But here’s the thing: statistics like this don’t tell the full story. They don’t account for the power we hold to shift the narrative. As leaders, innovators, and culture-makers, we must embrace wealth equity as a core strategy. Here’s how we can start rewriting the script: 1️⃣ Build Financial Resilience Through Ownership: Ownership—whether it’s businesses, real estate, or intellectual property—is one of the fastest paths to generational wealth. Minority-owned small businesses, for example, often overlook opportunities like supplier diversity programs or university procurement partnerships. Tapping into these underutilized resources can accelerate growth. 2️⃣ Invest In Community-Centric Innovation: Many of the apps, services, and products we rely on don’t center our lived experiences. Imagine if our $1.8 trillion in buying power was directed toward solutions built for us, by us. It’s time to create platforms that reflect our values and needs, not just consume them. 3️⃣ Prioritize Financial Literacy and Intentional Spending: Knowledge is power. From understanding the compounding effect of investments to teaching the next generation how to save and build credit, we must normalize financial conversations. Similarly, supporting Black-owned businesses should be an everyday practice—not just a seasonal one. 4️⃣ Collaborate and Scale Thoughtfully: Sometimes, intentional smallness is the path to big impact. Entrepreneurs, for example, don’t need to scale at the expense of sustainability. We can focus on profitable, community-centered growth without being pressured into rapid expansion. This isn’t just about avoiding a financial cliff—it’s about building a future where our contributions are valued, our stories are told, and our wealth is sustained. So, let’s not wait for solutions to come from elsewhere. Let’s lead. Let’s invest in ourselves, our communities, and our collective power. What steps are you taking today to shift this trajectory? I’d love to hear your perspective.

It has been a tough year for Nigeria. Inflation has continued to surge, causing pain across our economy. Our country has been hit hard. As a nation, we import more than we export, and with a manufacturing sector struggling and the continued growth of our population, we require more than just short term “interventions”. We need a comprehensive strategy to support our vast and diverse population and unlock our potential. Nigeria is rich in resources, natural and human. But, time and time again, we have failed to invest in our people and our value chain. And by value chain, I mean not just our oil & gas or manufacturing, I mean power, I mean schools, universities, our institutions. All those foundations that provide the ecosystem for a country to succeed. A country that does not address its basic infrastructure needs, is a country that cannot realise its potential. At this time of uncertainty, we all – citizens and government – must transform this crisis into an opportunity—a blueprint for creating a thriving, people and investor-friendly environment. I talk of Africapitalism, the importance of the private sector driving economic change, but delivering it in a way that is just and equitable – but we cannot do good and do well when our people who strive cannot thrive. The theme of my keynote is “Accelerated Economic Growth and Development: The State of Play and the Way Forward.” I will approach it by emphasizing the key areas that will shape Nigeria's economic future. My strategy is centered on 3 critical areas: 1. Access to Electricity: Development is impossible without reliable access to electricity. Power is a fundamental resource, that impacts every aspect of life—from hospitals to homes and businesses. Nigeria cannot industrialise, our youth cannot be educated, without ensuring our abundant natural resources are translated into plentiful, robust power for all. A power ecosystem that encourages investment and unlocks our economy. To accelerate our progress, we must enable our power sector to guarantee reliable electricity for everyone. 2. Security: To protect our people, feed them, attract investment, and foster trade, we must prioritise security. Insecurity has become a national crisis, which must be dealt with decisively and urgently. Our people deserve to go to their farms unhindered, live peacefully and conduct their lives and businesses without fear. 3. Youth Entrepreneurship: We must incentivise our youth to embrace the challenge of driving economic growth. We face a choice, either we offer our young a future where opportunity is outside Nigeria, forcing our best and brightest to leave, to undertake perilous journeys, that split families and destroy lives – or we create a Nigeria, where value and wealth creation can take place at home, where our young can realise their dreams in Nigeria, for Nigeria. Read the full speech on my blog https://lnkd.in/dxtqFE2y